AS CANADA HALVES ITS INTERNATIONAL PERMIT TARGETS, DIFFERENCES IN APPROVAL RATES AND PAL ACCESS COULD SHAPE HOW HARD THE CUTS HIT THE U OF O
In 2026, the federal government plans to cut the number of new international study permits nearly in half, but for the University of Ottawa, the total impact of this reduction still remains unclear.
Canada is already seeing a sharp drop in new international student arrivals: in November 2025, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) approved 2,485 new study permits, compared to 95,320 in December 2023 – a 97 per cent decrease.
Under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan unveiled late November 2025, the IRCC will reduce the target for new permits from 305,000 to 155,000. Targets for 2027 and 2028 are set to continue falling, setting slightly lower targets at 150,000.
While the University of Ottawa has already finalized its international intake targets for the 2026-2027 admission cycle, key factors determining how many students ultimately arrive, including territorial/provincial attestation letters (T/PALs) and study permit approval rates, remain either confidential or entirely unavailable.
The uncertainty matters because federal caps will not impact all universities equally. Differences in historical approval rates, student profiles, and access to PALs could leave some institutions insulated and others to face harsher declines.
This marks the third consecutive year of federal restrictions on international students, following the 35 percent reduction in 2024 and a further 10 percent in 2025.
The cuts have drawn criticism from the Council of Ontario Universities (COU), warning in their 2025 fall statement that further reductions could “undermine the financial stability of universities” and ““limit Ontario’s ability to develop talent, weaken university research and innovation capacity…”
In a recent interview with the Fulcrum when asked about the broader state of the international student body, University of Ottawa President and Vice-Chancellor Marie-Eve Sylvestre said the current restrictive and changing policies are “not sending the right signals to international students,” pointing to the uncertainty such measures can create for prospective applicants.
Ontario faces steep cuts
Ontario is expected to face one of the sharpest declines for PAL’s. According to provincial figures, Ontario’s PAL allocation will drop roughly 42 per cent compared to 2025, but compared to 2024, this is a 70% drop, limiting how many students Ontario can sponsor.
Under the current system, universities admit students first, then issue a PAL once the applicant accepts the offer and pays a deposit. Students then apply for federal study permits using the PAL, with the final approval decided by the IRCC.
PALs are tied to provincial allocations, so fewer federal permits mean fewer PALs available for the provinces and territories to distribute to institutions. However, how those PALS are distributed across institutions is not made public.
According to U of O spokesperson Jesse Robichaud, universities receive their PAL allocations through Ministry Communications, which designate the figures as confidential, making it impossible to decipher how the provincial cuts are being distributed across colleges and universities.
Planning is over, but outcomes remain uncertain
Despite the shift, the U of O says its international intake targets for the 2026-2027 admission cycle were finalized last summer and have not changed in response to the announcement of further study permit cuts.
The university also confirmed it has received its 2026 PAL allocation from Ontario, but did not disclose the figure. Even with intake targets unchanged, how many students arrive will still depend on federal approval rates.
Some universities argue that the federal caps may not affect them as much as expected. As reported by the Varsity, the University of Toronto has said the permit reductions are unlikely to impact its intake because of historically high study permit approval rates. According to U of T, its international applicants have a three-year rolling approval rate of 88 per cent, compared to a national average of 54 per cent.
In their statement, U of T suggested that factors such as successful historical approval rates, strong students’ profiles, and rigorous application vetting can impact institutions’ allocations from the province for the better.
The U of O confirmed they could provide a consolidated historical study permit approval rate data for its international applicants. Without this data, it remains unclear how the federal caps will affect the university’s incoming international student population, and whether it will face similar pressures of other Ontario universities and colleges.
However, President and Vice-Chancellor Marie-Eve Sylvestre highlighted the federal government’s recent move to exempt graduate students from the PAL system, seeing this as “good news” for research and international students as a whole.
Sylvestre also mentioned that “while it’s still preliminary,” the U of O has seen an increase in applicants for anglophone international students, but not for francophones this year.
Sylvestre emphasizes that the University of Ottawa is still “hoping the government changes the discourse around international students,” and returns to an approach that is welcoming for all.
